Marks: 60
The stock market has consistently proven to be a good place to invest in and save for the future. There are a lot of compelling reasons to invest in stocks. It can help in fighting inflation, create wealth, and also provides some tax benefits. Good steady returns on investments over a long period of time can also grow a lot more than seems possible. Also, thanks to the power of compound interest, the earlier one starts investing, the larger the corpus one can have for retirement. Overall, investing in stocks can help meet life's financial aspirations.
It is important to maintain a diversified portfolio when investing in stocks in order to maximise earnings under any market condition. Having a diversified portfolio tends to yield higher returns and face lower risk by tempering potential losses when the market is down. It is often easy to get lost in a sea of financial metrics to analyze while determining the worth of a stock, and doing the same for a multitude of stocks to identify the right picks for an individual can be a tedious task. By doing a cluster analysis, one can identify stocks that exhibit similar characteristics and ones which exhibit minimum correlation. This will help investors better analyze stocks across different market segments and help protect against risks that could make the portfolio vulnerable to losses.
Trade&Ahead is a financial consultancy firm who provide their customers with personalized investment strategies. They have hired you as a Data Scientist and provided you with data comprising stock price and some financial indicators for a few companies listed under the New York Stock Exchange. They have assigned you the tasks of analyzing the data, grouping the stocks based on the attributes provided, and sharing insights about the characteristics of each group.
# Libraries to help with reading and manipulating data
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
# Libraries to help with data visualization
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
sns.set_theme(style='darkgrid')
# Removes the limit for the number of displayed columns
pd.set_option("display.max_columns", None)
# Sets the limit for the number of displayed rows
pd.set_option("display.max_rows", 200)
# to scale the data using z-score
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
# to compute distances
from scipy.spatial.distance import cdist, pdist
# to perform k-means clustering and compute silhouette scores
from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
from sklearn.metrics import silhouette_score
# to visualize the elbow curve and silhouette scores
from yellowbrick.cluster import KElbowVisualizer, SilhouetteVisualizer
# to perform hierarchical clustering, compute cophenetic correlation, and create dendrograms
from sklearn.cluster import AgglomerativeClustering
from scipy.cluster.hierarchy import dendrogram, linkage, cophenet
# to suppress warnings
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
# Loading the dataset
from google.colab import files
uploaded = files.upload()
Saving stock_data.csv to stock_data.csv
data = pd.read_csv('stock_data.csv')
# copying data to another varaible to preserve original data
df = data.copy()
df.shape
(340, 15)
There are 340 rows and 15 columns.
# let's view a sample of the data
data.sample(n=10, random_state=1)
| Ticker Symbol | Security | GICS Sector | GICS Sub Industry | Current Price | Price Change | Volatility | ROE | Cash Ratio | Net Cash Flow | Net Income | Earnings Per Share | Estimated Shares Outstanding | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | DVN | Devon Energy Corp. | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | 32.000000 | -15.478079 | 2.923698 | 205 | 70 | 830000000 | -14454000000 | -35.55 | 4.065823e+08 | 93.089287 | 1.785616 |
| 125 | FB | Information Technology | Internet Software & Services | 104.660004 | 16.224320 | 1.320606 | 8 | 958 | 592000000 | 3669000000 | 1.31 | 2.800763e+09 | 79.893133 | 5.884467 | |
| 11 | AIV | Apartment Investment & Mgmt | Real Estate | REITs | 40.029999 | 7.578608 | 1.163334 | 15 | 47 | 21818000 | 248710000 | 1.52 | 1.636250e+08 | 26.335526 | -1.269332 |
| 248 | PG | Procter & Gamble | Consumer Staples | Personal Products | 79.410004 | 10.660538 | 0.806056 | 17 | 129 | 160383000 | 636056000 | 3.28 | 4.913916e+08 | 24.070121 | -2.256747 |
| 238 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | 67.610001 | 0.865287 | 1.589520 | 32 | 64 | -588000000 | -7829000000 | -10.23 | 7.652981e+08 | 93.089287 | 3.345102 |
| 336 | YUM | Yum! Brands Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants | 52.516175 | -8.698917 | 1.478877 | 142 | 27 | 159000000 | 1293000000 | 2.97 | 4.353535e+08 | 17.682214 | -3.838260 |
| 112 | EQT | EQT Corporation | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | 52.130001 | -21.253771 | 2.364883 | 2 | 201 | 523803000 | 85171000 | 0.56 | 1.520911e+08 | 93.089287 | 9.567952 |
| 147 | HAL | Halliburton Co. | Energy | Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 34.040001 | -5.101751 | 1.966062 | 4 | 189 | 7786000000 | -671000000 | -0.79 | 8.493671e+08 | 93.089287 | 17.345857 |
| 89 | DFS | Discover Financial Services | Financials | Consumer Finance | 53.619999 | 3.653584 | 1.159897 | 20 | 99 | 2288000000 | 2297000000 | 5.14 | 4.468872e+08 | 10.431906 | -0.375934 |
| 173 | IVZ | Invesco Ltd. | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | 33.480000 | 7.067477 | 1.580839 | 12 | 67 | 412000000 | 968100000 | 2.26 | 4.283628e+08 | 14.814159 | 4.218620 |
#Check the data types of the columns for the dataset
df.info()
<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'> RangeIndex: 340 entries, 0 to 339 Data columns (total 15 columns): # Column Non-Null Count Dtype --- ------ -------------- ----- 0 Ticker Symbol 340 non-null object 1 Security 340 non-null object 2 GICS Sector 340 non-null object 3 GICS Sub Industry 340 non-null object 4 Current Price 340 non-null float64 5 Price Change 340 non-null float64 6 Volatility 340 non-null float64 7 ROE 340 non-null int64 8 Cash Ratio 340 non-null int64 9 Net Cash Flow 340 non-null int64 10 Net Income 340 non-null int64 11 Earnings Per Share 340 non-null float64 12 Estimated Shares Outstanding 340 non-null float64 13 P/E Ratio 340 non-null float64 14 P/B Ratio 340 non-null float64 dtypes: float64(7), int64(4), object(4) memory usage: 40.0+ KB
# checking for duplicate values
df.duplicated().sum()
0
# checking for missing values
df.isnull().sum()
Ticker Symbol 0 Security 0 GICS Sector 0 GICS Sub Industry 0 Current Price 0 Price Change 0 Volatility 0 ROE 0 Cash Ratio 0 Net Cash Flow 0 Net Income 0 Earnings Per Share 0 Estimated Shares Outstanding 0 P/E Ratio 0 P/B Ratio 0 dtype: int64
There is no duplicated data and missing values in the dataset.
#check the statistical summary of the data
df.describe(include='all').T
| count | unique | top | freq | mean | std | min | 25% | 50% | 75% | max | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker Symbol | 340 | 340 | AAL | 1 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| Security | 340 | 340 | American Airlines Group | 1 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| GICS Sector | 340 | 11 | Industrials | 53 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| GICS Sub Industry | 340 | 104 | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | 16 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| Current Price | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 80.862345 | 98.055086 | 4.5 | 38.555 | 59.705 | 92.880001 | 1274.949951 |
| Price Change | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 4.078194 | 12.006338 | -47.129693 | -0.939484 | 4.819505 | 10.695493 | 55.051683 |
| Volatility | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 1.525976 | 0.591798 | 0.733163 | 1.134878 | 1.385593 | 1.695549 | 4.580042 |
| ROE | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 39.597059 | 96.547538 | 1.0 | 9.75 | 15.0 | 27.0 | 917.0 |
| Cash Ratio | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 70.023529 | 90.421331 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 47.0 | 99.0 | 958.0 |
| Net Cash Flow | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 55537620.588235 | 1946365312.175789 | -11208000000.0 | -193906500.0 | 2098000.0 | 169810750.0 | 20764000000.0 |
| Net Income | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 1494384602.941176 | 3940150279.327936 | -23528000000.0 | 352301250.0 | 707336000.0 | 1899000000.0 | 24442000000.0 |
| Earnings Per Share | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 2.776662 | 6.587779 | -61.2 | 1.5575 | 2.895 | 4.62 | 50.09 |
| Estimated Shares Outstanding | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 577028337.75403 | 845849595.417695 | 27672156.86 | 158848216.1 | 309675137.8 | 573117457.325 | 6159292035.0 |
| P/E Ratio | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 32.612563 | 44.348731 | 2.935451 | 15.044653 | 20.819876 | 31.764755 | 528.039074 |
| P/B Ratio | 340.0 | NaN | NaN | NaN | -1.718249 | 13.966912 | -76.119077 | -4.352056 | -1.06717 | 3.917066 | 129.064585 |
There are 11 unique GICS sectors and 104 unique GICS sub-industries within the dataset. This suggests that the companies belong to a variety of industry sectors and sub-sectors.
The mean current price is approximately $80.86, with a minimum of $4.50 and a maximum of $1,274.95. This indicates a wide range of stock prices within the dataset.
The price change column has a mean of approximately 4.08, with a minimum value of -47.13 and a maximum value of 55.05. This suggests a wide variation in daily price changes.
Most of the companies in the dataset belong to industrials.
Questions:
Univariate analysis
# function to plot a boxplot and a histogram along the same scale.
def histogram_boxplot(df, feature, figsize=(12, 7), kde=False, bins=None):
"""
Boxplot and histogram combined
data: dataframe
feature: dataframe column
figsize: size of figure (default (12,7))
kde: whether to the show density curve (default False)
bins: number of bins for histogram (default None)
"""
f2, (ax_box2, ax_hist2) = plt.subplots(
nrows=2, # Number of rows of the subplot grid= 2
sharex=True, # x-axis will be shared among all subplots
gridspec_kw={"height_ratios": (0.25, 0.75)},
figsize=figsize,
) # creating the 2 subplots
sns.boxplot(
data=df, x=feature, ax=ax_box2, showmeans=True, color="violet"
) # boxplot will be created and a star will indicate the mean value of the column
sns.histplot(
data=df, x=feature, kde=kde, ax=ax_hist2, bins=bins, palette="winter"
) if bins else sns.histplot(
data=df, x=feature, kde=kde, ax=ax_hist2
) # For histogram
ax_hist2.axvline(
df[feature].mean(), color="green", linestyle="--"
) # Add mean to the histogram
ax_hist2.axvline(
df[feature].median(), color="black", linestyle="-"
) # Add median to the histogram
#create list of columns with numerical variables
num_col = df.select_dtypes(include=np.number).columns.tolist()
#display histograms and boxplots for all numerical columns
for col in num_col:
histogram_boxplot(df, col)
obervation
Price change The plot shows a very slightly left-skewed distribution. It shows there are more extreme negative values (price decreases) than extreme positive values (price increases).
Volatility The right-skewed distribution of Volatility shows that most companies have low volatility, and a smaller number of companies have exceptionally high volatility. there are some outliers with much higher volatility on the right-hand side.
ROE
Cash Ratio
Net Cash Flow
Net Income
Net income is shown to be right skewed with both long positive and negative tails, implied that while most companies have relatively lower net income, there are a few companies with significantly high net income, which can be an indicator of strong financial performance.
Earnings Per Share
The "Earnings Per Share" appears to exhibit right-skew distribution. It suggests that there are more companies with lower EPS values than those with very high EPS values. There are some outliers present in this distribution, suggesting that that there are companies with exceptionally high Earnings Per Share values.
Estimated shares outstanding
It shows right-skew distribution with a long tail on the right hand side , suggesting that there are more companies with relatively lower numbers of estimated shares outstanding than those with very high numbers.
There are a lot of outliers present on the right hand side, indicating that there are companies with an exceptionally high number of estimated shares outstanding.
P/E Ratio
The right-skewed distribution is shown, suggesting that there are more companies with relatively higher P/E Ratios than those with very low P/E Ratios.
There are some outliers present on the right side, indicating that there are some companies with a very high P/E Ratio.
P/B Ratio
Most companies are at 0 P/B ratio. There are some ouliters on both side, i.e there are more companies with relatively lower or negative P/B Ratios than those with very high P/B Ratios.
# function to create labeled barplots
def labeled_barplot(df, feature, perc=False, n=None):
"""
Barplot with percentage at the top
data: dataframe
feature: dataframe column
perc: whether to display percentages instead of count (default is False)
n: displays the top n category levels (default is None, i.e., display all levels)
"""
total = len(df[feature]) # length of the column
count = df[feature].nunique()
if n is None:
plt.figure(figsize=(count + 1, 5))
else:
plt.figure(figsize=(n + 1, 5))
plt.xticks(rotation=90, fontsize=15)
ax = sns.countplot(
data=df,
x=feature,
palette="Paired",
order=df[feature].value_counts().index[:n].sort_values(),
)
for p in ax.patches:
if perc == True:
label = "{:.1f}%".format(
100 * p.get_height() / total
) # percentage of each class of the category
else:
label = p.get_height() # count of each level of the category
x = p.get_x() + p.get_width() / 2 # width of the plot
y = p.get_height() # height of the plot
ax.annotate(
label,
(x, y),
ha="center",
va="center",
size=12,
xytext=(0, 5),
textcoords="offset points",
) # annotate the percentage
plt.show() # show the plot
#GICS Sector
labeled_barplot(df, 'GICS Sector', perc=True)
Industrials is the most frequently represented sector, 15.6%.
Financials is the second most common in this sector, 14.4%.
# GICS Sub Industry
labeled_barplot(df, 'GICS Sub Industry', perc=True)
#display the five sub industries with the most number of stocks
df['GICS Sub Industry'].value_counts().head(n=5)
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 16 REITs 14 Industrial Conglomerates 14 Electric Utilities 12 Internet Software & Services 12 Name: GICS Sub Industry, dtype: int64
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production : This sub-industry has the highest number of stocks in the dataset, with 16 companies classified under it.
REITs is the second most common sub-industry, with 14 companies falling under this category.
The presence of 14 companies in the "Industrial Conglomerates" sub-industry indicates a diversity of businesses under this category.
# correlation check
plt.figure(figsize=(15, 7))
sns.heatmap(
df.corr(), annot=True, vmin=-1, vmax=1, fmt=".2f", cmap="Spectral"
)
plt.show()
Volatility and Price Change: The negative correlation (-0.41) between volatility and price change implies an inverse relationship. This means that as a stock becomes more volatile (experiences larger price fluctuations), its price is likely to drop.
Net Income and earnings per share (EPS) and estimated shares outstanding: The positive correlation 0.56 / 0.59 respectively between net income and earnings per share (EPS) and estimated shares outstanding indicates that as a company's net income increases, it is likely to have a positive impact on EPS and estimated shares outstanding. This means that higher net income contributes to higher EPS / estimated shares outstanding, reflecting greater earnings available to each common share.
Earnings per share and Current Price: The positive correlation 0.48 between earnings per share (EPS) and current price suggests that as a company's EPS rises, its stock price is also highly likely to increase.
EPS and ROE: The negative correlation -0.41 between EPS and return on equity (ROE) implies an inverse relationship. This means that as a company generates more equity for shareholders (higher ROE), an equivalent amount of net income in the following periods will generate a lower return.
Let's check the stocks of which economic sector have seen the maximum price increase on average.
plt.figure(figsize=(15, 8))
ax = sns.barplot(data=df, x='GICS Sector', y='Price Change', ci=False, order=df.groupby('GICS Sector')['Price Change'].mean().sort_values(ascending=False).index) #Show in descending order
plt.xticks(rotation=90)
# Adding labels on top of each bar
for p in ax.patches:
ax.annotate(f'{p.get_height():.2f}', (p.get_x() + p.get_width() / 2., p.get_height()), ha='center', va='bottom', fontsize=10)
plt.show()
On average, stock price changes the most on health care sector , 9.59% increase while stocks in the energy sector decrease -10.23% the most.
Cash ratio provides a measure of a company's ability to cover its short-term obligations using only cash and cash equivalents. Let's see how the average cash ratio varies across economic sectors.
plt.figure(figsize=(15, 8))
ax = sns.barplot(data=df, x='GICS Sector',y='Cash Ratio', ci=False, order=df.groupby('GICS Sector')['Cash Ratio'].mean().sort_values(ascending=False).index) #Show in descending order
plt.xticks(rotation=90)
# Adding labels on top of each bar
for p in ax.patches:
ax.annotate(f'{p.get_height():.2f}', (p.get_x() + p.get_width() / 2., p.get_height()), ha='center', va='bottom', fontsize=10)
plt.show()
Information Technology has the highest average cash ratio at 149.82, indicating that, on average, companies in this sector have a significant amount of cash and cash equivalents on hand to cover their short-term obligations. This suggests strong liquidity within the Information Technology sector.
Telecommunications Services follows closely with an average cash ratio of 117.00.
Health Care and Financials sectors have average cash ratios of 103.78 and 98.59, respectively, indicating strong liquidity positions.
P/E ratios can help determine the relative value of a company's shares as they signify the amount of money an investor is willing to invest in a single share of a company per dollar of its earnings. Let's see how the P/E ratio varies, on average, across economic sectors.
plt.figure(figsize=(15, 8))
ax = sns.barplot(data=df, x='GICS Sector',y='P/E Ratio', ci=False, order=df.groupby('GICS Sector')['P/E Ratio'].mean().sort_values(ascending=False).index) #Show in descending order
plt.xticks(rotation=90)
# Adding labels on top of each bar
for p in ax.patches:
ax.annotate(f'{p.get_height():.2f}', (p.get_x() + p.get_width() / 2., p.get_height()), ha='center', va='bottom', fontsize=10)
plt.show()
The Energy sector has the highest average P/E ratio at 72.90. This suggests that investors in this sector are willing to pay a premium for a single share of a company's earnings, indicating a relatively higher valuation compared to other sectors.
The Information Technology sector follows closely with an average P/E ratio of 43.78. Investors in this sector are also willing to invest a significant amount for each dollar of earnings.
Real Estate has an average P/E ratio of 43.07, indicating that investors are willing to pay a relatively high price for shares in this sector.
Volatility accounts for the fluctuation in the stock price. A stock with high volatility will witness sharper price changes, making it a riskier investment. Let's see how volatility varies, on average, across economic sectors.
plt.figure(figsize=(15, 8))
ax = sns.barplot(data=df, x='GICS Sector',y='Volatility', ci=False, order=df.groupby('GICS Sector')['Volatility'].mean().sort_values(ascending=False).index) #Show in descending order
plt.xticks(rotation=90)
# Adding labels on top of each bar
for p in ax.patches:
ax.annotate(f'{p.get_height():.2f}', (p.get_x() + p.get_width() / 2., p.get_height()), ha='center', va='bottom', fontsize=10)
plt.show()
The Energy sector has the highest average volatility at 2.568777. Stocks in this sector tend to exhibit sharp and frequent price changes, making them riskier investments.
Secondly, materials have an average volatility of 1.816726, indicating that stocks in this sector experience relatively higher price fluctuations.
plt.figure(figsize=(15, 12))
numeric_columns = df.select_dtypes(include=np.number).columns.tolist()
for i, variable in enumerate(numeric_columns):
plt.subplot(3, 4, i + 1)
plt.boxplot(df[variable], whis=1.5)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.title(variable)
plt.show()
# Define the subset of numerical columns to scale
numeric_columns = df.select_dtypes(include=np.number).columns.tolist()
# scaling the data before clustering
scaler = StandardScaler()
subset = df[numeric_columns].copy()
subset_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(subset)
# creating a dataframe of the scaled data
subset_scaled_df = pd.DataFrame(subset_scaled, columns=subset.columns)
# pairplot for scaled dataframe
sns.pairplot(subset_scaled_df, height=2, aspect=2, diag_kind='kde')
plt.show()
After scaling, the distribution of each variable remains unchanged and are now standardized to have 0 of mean and 1 of standard deviation.
k_means_df = subset_scaled_df.copy()
clusters = range(1, 15)
meanDistortions = []
for k in clusters:
model = KMeans(n_clusters=k, random_state=1)
model.fit(subset_scaled_df)
prediction = model.predict(k_means_df)
distortion = (
sum(np.min(cdist(k_means_df, model.cluster_centers_, "euclidean"), axis=1))
/ k_means_df.shape[0]
)
meanDistortions.append(distortion)
print("Number of Clusters:", k, "\tAverage Distortion:", distortion)
plt.plot(clusters, meanDistortions, "bx-")
plt.xlabel("k")
plt.ylabel("Average Distortion")
plt.title("Selecting k with the Elbow Method", fontsize=20)
plt.show()
Number of Clusters: 1 Average Distortion: 2.5425069919221697 Number of Clusters: 2 Average Distortion: 2.382318498894466 Number of Clusters: 3 Average Distortion: 2.2692367155390745 Number of Clusters: 4 Average Distortion: 2.1745559827866363 Number of Clusters: 5 Average Distortion: 2.128799332840716 Number of Clusters: 6 Average Distortion: 2.080400099226289 Number of Clusters: 7 Average Distortion: 2.0289794220177395 Number of Clusters: 8 Average Distortion: 1.964144163389972 Number of Clusters: 9 Average Distortion: 1.9221492045198068 Number of Clusters: 10 Average Distortion: 1.8513913649973124 Number of Clusters: 11 Average Distortion: 1.8024134734578485 Number of Clusters: 12 Average Distortion: 1.7900931879652673 Number of Clusters: 13 Average Distortion: 1.7417609203336912 Number of Clusters: 14 Average Distortion: 1.673559857259703
model = KMeans(random_state=1)
visualizer = KElbowVisualizer(model, k=(1, 15), timings=True)
visualizer.fit(k_means_df) # fit the data to the visualizer
visualizer.show() # finalize and render figure
<Axes: title={'center': 'Distortion Score Elbow for KMeans Clustering'}, xlabel='k', ylabel='distortion score'>
sil_score = []
cluster_list = range(2, 15)
for n_clusters in cluster_list:
clusterer = KMeans(n_clusters=n_clusters, random_state=1)
preds = clusterer.fit_predict((subset_scaled_df))
score = silhouette_score(k_means_df, preds)
sil_score.append(score)
print("For n_clusters = {}, the silhouette score is {})".format(n_clusters, score))
plt.plot(cluster_list, sil_score)
plt.show()
For n_clusters = 2, the silhouette score is 0.43969639509980457) For n_clusters = 3, the silhouette score is 0.4644405674779404) For n_clusters = 4, the silhouette score is 0.4577225970476733) For n_clusters = 5, the silhouette score is 0.43228336443659804) For n_clusters = 6, the silhouette score is 0.4005422737213617) For n_clusters = 7, the silhouette score is 0.3976335364987305) For n_clusters = 8, the silhouette score is 0.40278401969450467) For n_clusters = 9, the silhouette score is 0.3778585981433699) For n_clusters = 10, the silhouette score is 0.13458938329968687) For n_clusters = 11, the silhouette score is 0.1421832155528444) For n_clusters = 12, the silhouette score is 0.2044669621527429) For n_clusters = 13, the silhouette score is 0.23424874810104204) For n_clusters = 14, the silhouette score is 0.12102526472829901)
model = KMeans(random_state=1)
visualizer = KElbowVisualizer(model, k=(2, 15), metric="silhouette", timings=True)
visualizer.fit(k_means_df) # fit the data to the visualizer
visualizer.show() # finalize and render figure
<Axes: title={'center': 'Silhouette Score Elbow for KMeans Clustering'}, xlabel='k', ylabel='silhouette score'>
from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
from yellowbrick.cluster import SilhouetteVisualizer
# Specify a range of cluster numbers to visualize
cluster_range = range(2, 15)
for n_clusters in cluster_range:
model = KMeans(n_clusters=n_clusters, random_state=1)
visualizer = SilhouetteVisualizer(model, colors='yellowbrick')
# Fit the visualizer to your data
visualizer.fit(k_means_df)
# Optionally, display the visualization
visualizer.show()
From the silhouette score of 0.464 for 3 clusters is the highest. Considering Elbow plots and Silhouette score, the number of clusters with the best performance appears to be 4,5,6. But the silhouette score for 5 and 6 are not conviencing.
Therefore, 4 clusters is chosen with the best silhouette score.
# final K-means model
kmeans = KMeans(n_clusters=4, random_state=1)
kmeans.fit(k_means_df)
KMeans(n_clusters=4, random_state=1)In a Jupyter environment, please rerun this cell to show the HTML representation or trust the notebook.
KMeans(n_clusters=4, random_state=1)
# creating a copy of the original data
df1 = df.copy()
# adding kmeans cluster labels to the original and scaled dataframes
k_means_df["KM_segments"] = kmeans.labels_
df1["KM_segments"] = kmeans.labels_
km_cluster_profile = df1.groupby('KM_segments').mean()
km_cluster_profile["count_in_each_segment"] = (
df1.groupby("KM_segments")["Security"].count().values
)
km_cluster_profile.style.highlight_max(color="lightgreen", axis=0)
| Current Price | Price Change | Volatility | ROE | Cash Ratio | Net Cash Flow | Net Income | Earnings Per Share | Estimated Shares Outstanding | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | count_in_each_segment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KM_segments | ||||||||||||
| 0 | 72.399112 | 5.066225 | 1.388319 | 34.620939 | 53.000000 | -14046223.826715 | 1482212389.891697 | 3.621029 | 438533835.667184 | 23.843656 | -3.358948 | 277 |
| 1 | 50.517273 | 5.747586 | 1.130399 | 31.090909 | 75.909091 | -1072272727.272727 | 14833090909.090910 | 4.154545 | 4298826628.727273 | 14.803577 | -4.552119 | 11 |
| 2 | 38.099260 | -15.370329 | 2.910500 | 107.074074 | 50.037037 | -159428481.481481 | -3887457740.740741 | -9.473704 | 480398572.845926 | 90.619220 | 1.342067 | 27 |
| 3 | 234.170932 | 13.400685 | 1.729989 | 25.600000 | 277.640000 | 1554926560.000000 | 1572611680.000000 | 6.045200 | 578316318.948800 | 74.960824 | 14.402452 | 25 |
## print the companies in each cluster
for cl in df1["KM_segments"].unique():
print("In cluster {}, the following companies are present:".format(cl))
print(df1[df1["KM_segments"] == cl]["Security"].unique())
print()
In cluster 0, the following companies are present: ['American Airlines Group' 'AbbVie' 'Abbott Laboratories' 'Adobe Systems Inc' 'Archer-Daniels-Midland Co' 'Ameren Corp' 'American Electric Power' 'AFLAC Inc' 'American International Group, Inc.' 'Apartment Investment & Mgmt' 'Assurant Inc' 'Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.' 'Akamai Technologies Inc' 'Albemarle Corp' 'Alaska Air Group Inc' 'Allstate Corp' 'Allegion' 'Applied Materials Inc' 'AMETEK Inc' 'Affiliated Managers Group Inc' 'Ameriprise Financial' 'American Tower Corp A' 'AutoNation Inc' 'Anthem Inc.' 'Aon plc' 'Amphenol Corp' 'Arconic Inc' 'Activision Blizzard' 'AvalonBay Communities, Inc.' 'Broadcom' 'American Water Works Company Inc' 'American Express Co' 'Boeing Company' 'Baxter International Inc.' 'BB&T Corporation' 'Bard (C.R.) Inc.' 'The Bank of New York Mellon Corp.' 'Ball Corp' 'Bristol-Myers Squibb' 'Boston Scientific' 'BorgWarner' 'Boston Properties' 'Caterpillar Inc.' 'Chubb Limited' 'CBRE Group' 'Crown Castle International Corp.' 'Carnival Corp.' 'CF Industries Holdings Inc' 'Citizens Financial Group' 'Church & Dwight' 'C. H. Robinson Worldwide' 'Charter Communications' 'CIGNA Corp.' 'Cincinnati Financial' 'Colgate-Palmolive' 'Comerica Inc.' 'CME Group Inc.' 'Cummins Inc.' 'CMS Energy' 'Centene Corporation' 'CenterPoint Energy' 'Capital One Financial' 'The Cooper Companies' 'CSX Corp.' 'CenturyLink Inc' 'Cognizant Technology Solutions' 'Citrix Systems' 'CVS Health' 'Chevron Corp.' 'Dominion Resources' 'Delta Air Lines' 'Du Pont (E.I.)' 'Deere & Co.' 'Discover Financial Services' 'Quest Diagnostics' 'Danaher Corp.' 'The Walt Disney Company' 'Discovery Communications-A' 'Discovery Communications-C' 'Delphi Automotive' 'Digital Realty Trust' 'Dun & Bradstreet' 'Dover Corp.' 'Dr Pepper Snapple Group' 'Duke Energy' 'DaVita Inc.' 'eBay Inc.' 'Ecolab Inc.' 'Consolidated Edison' 'Equifax Inc.' "Edison Int'l" 'Eastman Chemical' 'Equity Residential' 'Eversource Energy' 'Essex Property Trust, Inc.' 'E*Trade' 'Eaton Corporation' 'Entergy Corp.' 'Exelon Corp.' "Expeditors Int'l" 'Expedia Inc.' 'Extra Space Storage' 'Fastenal Co' 'Fortune Brands Home & Security' 'FirstEnergy Corp' 'Fidelity National Information Services' 'Fiserv Inc' 'FLIR Systems' 'Fluor Corp.' 'Flowserve Corporation' 'FMC Corporation' 'Federal Realty Investment Trust' 'General Dynamics' 'General Growth Properties Inc.' 'Corning Inc.' 'General Motors' 'Genuine Parts' 'Garmin Ltd.' 'Goodyear Tire & Rubber' 'Grainger (W.W.) Inc.' 'Hasbro Inc.' 'Huntington Bancshares' 'HCA Holdings' 'Welltower Inc.' 'HCP Inc.' 'Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.' 'Harley-Davidson' "Honeywell Int'l Inc." 'HP Inc.' 'Hormel Foods Corp.' 'Henry Schein' 'Host Hotels & Resorts' 'The Hershey Company' 'Humana Inc.' 'International Business Machines' 'IDEXX Laboratories' 'Intl Flavors & Fragrances' 'International Paper' 'Interpublic Group' 'Iron Mountain Incorporated' 'Illinois Tool Works' 'Invesco Ltd.' 'J. B. Hunt Transport Services' 'Jacobs Engineering Group' 'Juniper Networks' 'Kimco Realty' 'Kimberly-Clark' 'Kansas City Southern' 'Leggett & Platt' 'Lennar Corp.' 'Laboratory Corp. of America Holding' 'LKQ Corporation' 'L-3 Communications Holdings' 'Lilly (Eli) & Co.' 'Lockheed Martin Corp.' 'Alliant Energy Corp' 'Leucadia National Corp.' 'Southwest Airlines' 'Level 3 Communications' 'LyondellBasell' 'Mastercard Inc.' 'Mid-America Apartments' 'Macerich' "Marriott Int'l." 'Masco Corp.' 'Mattel Inc.' "Moody's Corp" 'Mondelez International' 'MetLife Inc.' 'Mohawk Industries' 'Mead Johnson' 'McCormick & Co.' 'Martin Marietta Materials' 'Marsh & McLennan' '3M Company' 'Altria Group Inc' 'The Mosaic Company' 'Marathon Petroleum' 'Merck & Co.' 'M&T Bank Corp.' 'Mettler Toledo' 'Mylan N.V.' 'Navient' 'NASDAQ OMX Group' 'NextEra Energy' 'Newmont Mining Corp. (Hldg. Co.)' 'Nielsen Holdings' 'Norfolk Southern Corp.' 'Northern Trust Corp.' 'Nucor Corp.' 'Newell Brands' 'Realty Income Corporation' 'Omnicom Group' "O'Reilly Automotive" "People's United Financial" 'Pitney-Bowes' 'PACCAR Inc.' 'PG&E Corp.' 'Public Serv. Enterprise Inc.' 'PepsiCo Inc.' 'Principal Financial Group' 'Procter & Gamble' 'Progressive Corp.' 'Pulte Homes Inc.' 'Philip Morris International' 'PNC Financial Services' 'Pentair Ltd.' 'Pinnacle West Capital' 'PPG Industries' 'PPL Corp.' 'Prudential Financial' 'Phillips 66' 'Praxair Inc.' 'PayPal' 'Ryder System' 'Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd' 'Robert Half International' 'Roper Industries' 'Republic Services Inc' 'SCANA Corp' 'Charles Schwab Corporation' 'Spectra Energy Corp.' 'Sealed Air' 'Sherwin-Williams' 'SL Green Realty' 'Scripps Networks Interactive Inc.' 'Southern Co.' 'Simon Property Group Inc' 'S&P Global, Inc.' 'Stericycle Inc' 'Sempra Energy' 'SunTrust Banks' 'State Street Corp.' 'Skyworks Solutions' 'Synchrony Financial' 'Stryker Corp.' 'Molson Coors Brewing Company' 'Tegna, Inc.' 'Torchmark Corp.' 'Thermo Fisher Scientific' 'The Travelers Companies Inc.' 'Tractor Supply Company' 'Tyson Foods' 'Tesoro Petroleum Co.' 'Total System Services' 'Texas Instruments' 'Under Armour' 'United Continental Holdings' 'UDR Inc' 'Universal Health Services, Inc.' 'United Health Group Inc.' 'Unum Group' 'Union Pacific' 'United Parcel Service' 'United Technologies' 'Varian Medical Systems' 'Valero Energy' 'Vulcan Materials' 'Vornado Realty Trust' 'Verisk Analytics' 'Verisign Inc.' 'Ventas Inc' 'Wec Energy Group Inc' 'Whirlpool Corp.' 'Waste Management Inc.' 'Western Union Co' 'Weyerhaeuser Corp.' 'Wyndham Worldwide' 'Xcel Energy Inc' 'XL Capital' 'Dentsply Sirona' 'Xerox Corp.' 'Xylem Inc.' 'Yum! Brands Inc' 'Zimmer Biomet Holdings' 'Zions Bancorp' 'Zoetis'] In cluster 3, the following companies are present: ['Analog Devices, Inc.' 'Alliance Data Systems' 'Alexion Pharmaceuticals' 'Amgen Inc' 'Amazon.com Inc' 'Bank of America Corp' 'BIOGEN IDEC Inc.' 'Celgene Corp.' 'Chipotle Mexican Grill' 'Equinix' 'Edwards Lifesciences' 'Facebook' 'First Solar Inc' 'Frontier Communications' 'Halliburton Co.' 'Intuitive Surgical Inc.' "McDonald's Corp." 'Monster Beverage' 'Priceline.com Inc' 'Regeneron' 'TripAdvisor' 'Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc' 'Waters Corporation' 'Wynn Resorts Ltd' 'Yahoo Inc.'] In cluster 2, the following companies are present: ['Apache Corporation' 'Anadarko Petroleum Corp' 'Baker Hughes Inc' 'Chesapeake Energy' 'Cabot Oil & Gas' 'Concho Resources' 'Devon Energy Corp.' 'EOG Resources' 'EQT Corporation' 'Freeport-McMoran Cp & Gld' 'Hess Corporation' 'Hewlett Packard Enterprise' 'Kinder Morgan' 'Marathon Oil Corp.' 'Murphy Oil' 'Noble Energy Inc' 'Netflix Inc.' 'Newfield Exploration Co' 'National Oilwell Varco Inc.' 'ONEOK' 'Occidental Petroleum' 'Quanta Services Inc.' 'Range Resources Corp.' 'Southwestern Energy' 'Teradata Corp.' 'Williams Cos.' 'Cimarex Energy'] In cluster 1, the following companies are present: ['Citigroup Inc.' 'Ford Motor' 'Gilead Sciences' 'Intel Corp.' 'JPMorgan Chase & Co.' 'Coca Cola Company' 'Pfizer Inc.' 'AT&T Inc' 'Verizon Communications' 'Wells Fargo' 'Exxon Mobil Corp.']
df1.groupby(["KM_segments", "GICS Sector"])['Security'].count()
KM_segments GICS Sector
0 Consumer Discretionary 33
Consumer Staples 17
Energy 6
Financials 45
Health Care 29
Industrials 52
Information Technology 24
Materials 19
Real Estate 26
Telecommunications Services 2
Utilities 24
1 Consumer Discretionary 1
Consumer Staples 1
Energy 1
Financials 3
Health Care 2
Information Technology 1
Telecommunications Services 2
2 Energy 22
Industrials 1
Information Technology 3
Materials 1
3 Consumer Discretionary 6
Consumer Staples 1
Energy 1
Financials 1
Health Care 9
Information Technology 5
Real Estate 1
Telecommunications Services 1
Name: Security, dtype: int64
plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
plt.suptitle("Boxplot of numerical variables for each cluster")
# selecting numerical columns
num_col = df.select_dtypes(include=np.number).columns.tolist()
for i, variable in enumerate(num_col):
plt.subplot(3, 4, i + 1)
sns.boxplot(data=df1, x="KM_segments", y=variable)
plt.tight_layout(pad=2.0)
Cluster 0: This cluster includes a wide range of sectors, with 277 stocks. Main sector is industrial. Other notable sectors include Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Information Technology. The cash ratio suggests that companies in this cluster have ample liquidity. Companies have positive net income, indicating profitability. These stocks have a relatively stable price and low volatility, making them suitable for risk-averse investors who are looking for stability and potential dividends.
Cluster 1:This cluster contains a smaller number of stocks 11. This cluster is characterized by high profitability and strong cash positions. Companies have high ROE, suggesting efficient use of equity. The relatively low P/E ratio indicates that these stocks may be undervalued. Consider these stocks for potential growth and value investments.
Cluster 2:his cluster has 27 stocks. Cluster 2 is primarily composed of companies from the Energy sector (22 companies). There are also a few companies from the Information Technology sector. T Stocks in this cluster have low prices and high volatility. The negative earnings and P/B ratio may indicate financial challenges. High risk.
Cluster 3: This cluster contains 25 stocks.These stocks are spread across different sectors. These stocks have a relatively high current price and moderate volatility. Companies have strong profitability, positive cash flow, and high P/E ratios. These stocks may be suitable for growth-oriented investors, but conduct a more detailed analysis for individual stock selection.
hc_df = subset_scaled_df.copy()
# list of distance metrics
distance_metrics = ["euclidean", "chebyshev", "mahalanobis", "cityblock"]
# list of linkage methods
linkage_methods = ["single", "complete", "average", "weighted"]
high_cophenet_corr = 0
high_dm_lm = [0, 0]
for dm in distance_metrics:
for lm in linkage_methods:
Z = linkage(hc_df, metric=dm, method=lm)
c, coph_dists = cophenet(Z, pdist(hc_df))
print(
"Cophenetic correlation for {} distance and {} linkage is {}.".format(
dm.capitalize(), lm, c
)
)
if high_cophenet_corr < c:
high_cophenet_corr = c
high_dm_lm[0] = dm
high_dm_lm[1] = lm
# printing the combination of distance metric and linkage method with the highest cophenetic correlation
print('*'*100)
print(
"Highest cophenetic correlation is {}, which is obtained with {} distance and {} linkage.".format(
high_cophenet_corr, high_dm_lm[0].capitalize(), high_dm_lm[1]
)
)
Cophenetic correlation for Euclidean distance and single linkage is 0.9232271494002922. Cophenetic correlation for Euclidean distance and complete linkage is 0.7873280186580672. Cophenetic correlation for Euclidean distance and average linkage is 0.9422540609560814. Cophenetic correlation for Euclidean distance and weighted linkage is 0.8693784298129404. Cophenetic correlation for Chebyshev distance and single linkage is 0.9062538164750717. Cophenetic correlation for Chebyshev distance and complete linkage is 0.598891419111242. Cophenetic correlation for Chebyshev distance and average linkage is 0.9338265528030499. Cophenetic correlation for Chebyshev distance and weighted linkage is 0.9127355892367. Cophenetic correlation for Mahalanobis distance and single linkage is 0.925919553052459. Cophenetic correlation for Mahalanobis distance and complete linkage is 0.7925307202850002. Cophenetic correlation for Mahalanobis distance and average linkage is 0.9247324030159736. Cophenetic correlation for Mahalanobis distance and weighted linkage is 0.8708317490180428. Cophenetic correlation for Cityblock distance and single linkage is 0.9334186366528574. Cophenetic correlation for Cityblock distance and complete linkage is 0.7375328863205818. Cophenetic correlation for Cityblock distance and average linkage is 0.9302145048594667. Cophenetic correlation for Cityblock distance and weighted linkage is 0.731045513520281. **************************************************************************************************** Highest cophenetic correlation is 0.9422540609560814, which is obtained with Euclidean distance and average linkage.
The highest cophenetic correlation value of 0.9422540609560814 was achieved with the Euclidean distance metric and and average linkage.
Let's explore different linkage methods with Euclidean distance only.
# list of linkage methods
linkage_methods =["single", "complete", "average", "centroid", "ward", "weighted"]
high_cophenet_corr = 0
high_dm_lm = [0, 0]
for lm in linkage_methods:
Z = linkage(hc_df, metric="euclidean", method=lm)
c, coph_dists = cophenet(Z, pdist(hc_df))
print("Cophenetic correlation for {} linkage is {}.".format(lm, c))
if high_cophenet_corr < c:
high_cophenet_corr = c
high_dm_lm[0] = "euclidean"
high_dm_lm[1] = lm
# printing the combination of distance metric and linkage method with the highest cophenetic correlation
print('*'*100)
print(
"Highest cophenetic correlation is {}, which is obtained with {} linkage.".format(
high_cophenet_corr, high_dm_lm[1]
)
)
Cophenetic correlation for single linkage is 0.9232271494002922. Cophenetic correlation for complete linkage is 0.7873280186580672. Cophenetic correlation for average linkage is 0.9422540609560814. Cophenetic correlation for centroid linkage is 0.9314012446828154. Cophenetic correlation for ward linkage is 0.7101180299865353. Cophenetic correlation for weighted linkage is 0.8693784298129404. **************************************************************************************************** Highest cophenetic correlation is 0.9422540609560814, which is obtained with average linkage.
Let's view the dendrograms for the different linkage methods with Euclidean distance.
# list of linkage methods
linkage_methods = ["single", "complete", "average", "centroid", "ward", "weighted"]
# lists to save results of cophenetic correlation calculation
compare_cols = ["Linkage", "Cophenetic Coefficient"]
compare = []
# to create a subplot image
fig, axs = plt.subplots(len(linkage_methods), 1, figsize=(15, 30))
# We will enumerate through the list of linkage methods above
# For each linkage method, we will plot the dendrogram and calculate the cophenetic correlation
for i, method in enumerate(linkage_methods):
Z = linkage(hc_df, metric="euclidean", method=method)
dendrogram(Z, ax=axs[i])
axs[i].set_title(f"Dendrogram ({method.capitalize()} Linkage)")
coph_corr, coph_dist = cophenet(Z, pdist(hc_df))
axs[i].annotate(
f"Cophenetic\nCorrelation\n{coph_corr:0.2f}",
(0.80, 0.80),
xycoords="axes fraction",
)
compare.append([method, coph_corr])
The cophenetic correlation is highest for average and centroid linkage methods, but the dendrogram for average appears to provide better clusters 5 appears to be the appropriate number of clusters for the average linkage method
# create and print a dataframe to compare cophenetic correlations for different linkage methods
df_cc = pd.DataFrame(compare, columns=compare_cols)
df_cc = df_cc.sort_values(by="Cophenetic Coefficient")
df_cc
| Linkage | Cophenetic Coefficient | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | ward | 0.710118 |
| 1 | complete | 0.787328 |
| 5 | weighted | 0.869378 |
| 0 | single | 0.923227 |
| 3 | centroid | 0.931401 |
| 2 | average | 0.942254 |
HCmodel = AgglomerativeClustering(n_clusters= 5 , affinity='euclidean', linkage='average')
HCmodel.fit(hc_df)
AgglomerativeClustering(affinity='euclidean', linkage='average', n_clusters=5)In a Jupyter environment, please rerun this cell to show the HTML representation or trust the notebook.
AgglomerativeClustering(affinity='euclidean', linkage='average', n_clusters=5)
# creating a copy of the original data
df2 = df.copy()
# adding hierarchical cluster labels to the original and scaled dataframes
hc_df["HC_segments"] = HCmodel.labels_
df2["HC_segments"] = HCmodel.labels_
hc_cluster_profile = df2.groupby("HC_segments").mean()
hc_cluster_profile["count_in_each_segment"] = (
df2.groupby("HC_segments")["Security"].count().values
)
hc_cluster_profile.style.highlight_max(color="lightgreen", axis=0)
| Current Price | Price Change | Volatility | ROE | Cash Ratio | Net Cash Flow | Net Income | Earnings Per Share | Estimated Shares Outstanding | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | count_in_each_segment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HC_segments | ||||||||||||
| 0 | 77.884243 | 4.105986 | 1.516865 | 35.320359 | 66.775449 | -32825817.365269 | 1535255703.592814 | 2.903308 | 559027333.145509 | 32.437511 | -1.781988 | 334 |
| 1 | 25.640000 | 11.237908 | 1.322355 | 12.500000 | 130.500000 | 16755500000.000000 | 13654000000.000000 | 3.295000 | 2791829362.100000 | 13.649696 | 1.508484 | 2 |
| 2 | 24.485001 | -13.351992 | 3.482611 | 802.000000 | 51.000000 | -1292500000.000000 | -19106500000.000000 | -41.815000 | 519573983.250000 | 60.748608 | 1.565141 | 2 |
| 3 | 104.660004 | 16.224320 | 1.320606 | 8.000000 | 958.000000 | 592000000.000000 | 3669000000.000000 | 1.310000 | 2800763359.000000 | 79.893133 | 5.884467 | 1 |
| 4 | 1274.949951 | 3.190527 | 1.268340 | 29.000000 | 184.000000 | -1671386000.000000 | 2551360000.000000 | 50.090000 | 50935516.070000 | 25.453183 | -1.052429 | 1 |
## print the companies in each cluster
for cl in df2["HC_segments"].unique():
print("In cluster {}, the following companies are present:".format(cl))
print(df2[df2["HC_segments"] == cl]["Security"].unique())
print()
In cluster 0, the following companies are present: ['American Airlines Group' 'AbbVie' 'Abbott Laboratories' 'Adobe Systems Inc' 'Analog Devices, Inc.' 'Archer-Daniels-Midland Co' 'Alliance Data Systems' 'Ameren Corp' 'American Electric Power' 'AFLAC Inc' 'American International Group, Inc.' 'Apartment Investment & Mgmt' 'Assurant Inc' 'Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.' 'Akamai Technologies Inc' 'Albemarle Corp' 'Alaska Air Group Inc' 'Allstate Corp' 'Allegion' 'Alexion Pharmaceuticals' 'Applied Materials Inc' 'AMETEK Inc' 'Affiliated Managers Group Inc' 'Amgen Inc' 'Ameriprise Financial' 'American Tower Corp A' 'Amazon.com Inc' 'AutoNation Inc' 'Anthem Inc.' 'Aon plc' 'Anadarko Petroleum Corp' 'Amphenol Corp' 'Arconic Inc' 'Activision Blizzard' 'AvalonBay Communities, Inc.' 'Broadcom' 'American Water Works Company Inc' 'American Express Co' 'Boeing Company' 'Baxter International Inc.' 'BB&T Corporation' 'Bard (C.R.) Inc.' 'Baker Hughes Inc' 'BIOGEN IDEC Inc.' 'The Bank of New York Mellon Corp.' 'Ball Corp' 'Bristol-Myers Squibb' 'Boston Scientific' 'BorgWarner' 'Boston Properties' 'Citigroup Inc.' 'Caterpillar Inc.' 'Chubb Limited' 'CBRE Group' 'Crown Castle International Corp.' 'Carnival Corp.' 'Celgene Corp.' 'CF Industries Holdings Inc' 'Citizens Financial Group' 'Church & Dwight' 'C. H. Robinson Worldwide' 'Charter Communications' 'CIGNA Corp.' 'Cincinnati Financial' 'Colgate-Palmolive' 'Comerica Inc.' 'CME Group Inc.' 'Chipotle Mexican Grill' 'Cummins Inc.' 'CMS Energy' 'Centene Corporation' 'CenterPoint Energy' 'Capital One Financial' 'Cabot Oil & Gas' 'The Cooper Companies' 'CSX Corp.' 'CenturyLink Inc' 'Cognizant Technology Solutions' 'Citrix Systems' 'CVS Health' 'Chevron Corp.' 'Concho Resources' 'Dominion Resources' 'Delta Air Lines' 'Du Pont (E.I.)' 'Deere & Co.' 'Discover Financial Services' 'Quest Diagnostics' 'Danaher Corp.' 'The Walt Disney Company' 'Discovery Communications-A' 'Discovery Communications-C' 'Delphi Automotive' 'Digital Realty Trust' 'Dun & Bradstreet' 'Dover Corp.' 'Dr Pepper Snapple Group' 'Duke Energy' 'DaVita Inc.' 'Devon Energy Corp.' 'eBay Inc.' 'Ecolab Inc.' 'Consolidated Edison' 'Equifax Inc.' "Edison Int'l" 'Eastman Chemical' 'EOG Resources' 'Equinix' 'Equity Residential' 'EQT Corporation' 'Eversource Energy' 'Essex Property Trust, Inc.' 'E*Trade' 'Eaton Corporation' 'Entergy Corp.' 'Edwards Lifesciences' 'Exelon Corp.' "Expeditors Int'l" 'Expedia Inc.' 'Extra Space Storage' 'Ford Motor' 'Fastenal Co' 'Fortune Brands Home & Security' 'Freeport-McMoran Cp & Gld' 'FirstEnergy Corp' 'Fidelity National Information Services' 'Fiserv Inc' 'FLIR Systems' 'Fluor Corp.' 'Flowserve Corporation' 'FMC Corporation' 'Federal Realty Investment Trust' 'First Solar Inc' 'Frontier Communications' 'General Dynamics' 'General Growth Properties Inc.' 'Gilead Sciences' 'Corning Inc.' 'General Motors' 'Genuine Parts' 'Garmin Ltd.' 'Goodyear Tire & Rubber' 'Grainger (W.W.) Inc.' 'Halliburton Co.' 'Hasbro Inc.' 'Huntington Bancshares' 'HCA Holdings' 'Welltower Inc.' 'HCP Inc.' 'Hess Corporation' 'Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.' 'Harley-Davidson' "Honeywell Int'l Inc." 'Hewlett Packard Enterprise' 'HP Inc.' 'Hormel Foods Corp.' 'Henry Schein' 'Host Hotels & Resorts' 'The Hershey Company' 'Humana Inc.' 'International Business Machines' 'IDEXX Laboratories' 'Intl Flavors & Fragrances' 'International Paper' 'Interpublic Group' 'Iron Mountain Incorporated' 'Intuitive Surgical Inc.' 'Illinois Tool Works' 'Invesco Ltd.' 'J. B. Hunt Transport Services' 'Jacobs Engineering Group' 'Juniper Networks' 'JPMorgan Chase & Co.' 'Kimco Realty' 'Kimberly-Clark' 'Kinder Morgan' 'Coca Cola Company' 'Kansas City Southern' 'Leggett & Platt' 'Lennar Corp.' 'Laboratory Corp. of America Holding' 'LKQ Corporation' 'L-3 Communications Holdings' 'Lilly (Eli) & Co.' 'Lockheed Martin Corp.' 'Alliant Energy Corp' 'Leucadia National Corp.' 'Southwest Airlines' 'Level 3 Communications' 'LyondellBasell' 'Mastercard Inc.' 'Mid-America Apartments' 'Macerich' "Marriott Int'l." 'Masco Corp.' 'Mattel Inc.' "McDonald's Corp." "Moody's Corp" 'Mondelez International' 'MetLife Inc.' 'Mohawk Industries' 'Mead Johnson' 'McCormick & Co.' 'Martin Marietta Materials' 'Marsh & McLennan' '3M Company' 'Monster Beverage' 'Altria Group Inc' 'The Mosaic Company' 'Marathon Petroleum' 'Merck & Co.' 'Marathon Oil Corp.' 'M&T Bank Corp.' 'Mettler Toledo' 'Murphy Oil' 'Mylan N.V.' 'Navient' 'Noble Energy Inc' 'NASDAQ OMX Group' 'NextEra Energy' 'Newmont Mining Corp. (Hldg. Co.)' 'Netflix Inc.' 'Newfield Exploration Co' 'Nielsen Holdings' 'National Oilwell Varco Inc.' 'Norfolk Southern Corp.' 'Northern Trust Corp.' 'Nucor Corp.' 'Newell Brands' 'Realty Income Corporation' 'ONEOK' 'Omnicom Group' "O'Reilly Automotive" 'Occidental Petroleum' "People's United Financial" 'Pitney-Bowes' 'PACCAR Inc.' 'PG&E Corp.' 'Public Serv. Enterprise Inc.' 'PepsiCo Inc.' 'Pfizer Inc.' 'Principal Financial Group' 'Procter & Gamble' 'Progressive Corp.' 'Pulte Homes Inc.' 'Philip Morris International' 'PNC Financial Services' 'Pentair Ltd.' 'Pinnacle West Capital' 'PPG Industries' 'PPL Corp.' 'Prudential Financial' 'Phillips 66' 'Quanta Services Inc.' 'Praxair Inc.' 'PayPal' 'Ryder System' 'Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd' 'Regeneron' 'Robert Half International' 'Roper Industries' 'Range Resources Corp.' 'Republic Services Inc' 'SCANA Corp' 'Charles Schwab Corporation' 'Spectra Energy Corp.' 'Sealed Air' 'Sherwin-Williams' 'SL Green Realty' 'Scripps Networks Interactive Inc.' 'Southern Co.' 'Simon Property Group Inc' 'S&P Global, Inc.' 'Stericycle Inc' 'Sempra Energy' 'SunTrust Banks' 'State Street Corp.' 'Skyworks Solutions' 'Southwestern Energy' 'Synchrony Financial' 'Stryker Corp.' 'AT&T Inc' 'Molson Coors Brewing Company' 'Teradata Corp.' 'Tegna, Inc.' 'Torchmark Corp.' 'Thermo Fisher Scientific' 'TripAdvisor' 'The Travelers Companies Inc.' 'Tractor Supply Company' 'Tyson Foods' 'Tesoro Petroleum Co.' 'Total System Services' 'Texas Instruments' 'Under Armour' 'United Continental Holdings' 'UDR Inc' 'Universal Health Services, Inc.' 'United Health Group Inc.' 'Unum Group' 'Union Pacific' 'United Parcel Service' 'United Technologies' 'Varian Medical Systems' 'Valero Energy' 'Vulcan Materials' 'Vornado Realty Trust' 'Verisk Analytics' 'Verisign Inc.' 'Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc' 'Ventas Inc' 'Verizon Communications' 'Waters Corporation' 'Wec Energy Group Inc' 'Wells Fargo' 'Whirlpool Corp.' 'Waste Management Inc.' 'Williams Cos.' 'Western Union Co' 'Weyerhaeuser Corp.' 'Wyndham Worldwide' 'Wynn Resorts Ltd' 'Cimarex Energy' 'Xcel Energy Inc' 'XL Capital' 'Exxon Mobil Corp.' 'Dentsply Sirona' 'Xerox Corp.' 'Xylem Inc.' 'Yahoo Inc.' 'Yum! Brands Inc' 'Zimmer Biomet Holdings' 'Zions Bancorp' 'Zoetis'] In cluster 2, the following companies are present: ['Apache Corporation' 'Chesapeake Energy'] In cluster 1, the following companies are present: ['Bank of America Corp' 'Intel Corp.'] In cluster 3, the following companies are present: ['Facebook'] In cluster 4, the following companies are present: ['Priceline.com Inc']
df2.groupby(["HC_segments", "GICS Sector"])['Security'].count()
HC_segments GICS Sector
0 Consumer Discretionary 39
Consumer Staples 19
Energy 28
Financials 48
Health Care 40
Industrials 53
Information Technology 31
Materials 20
Real Estate 27
Telecommunications Services 5
Utilities 24
1 Financials 1
Information Technology 1
2 Energy 2
3 Information Technology 1
4 Consumer Discretionary 1
Name: Security, dtype: int64
plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
plt.suptitle("Boxplot of numerical variables for each cluster")
for i, variable in enumerate(num_col):
plt.subplot(3, 4, i + 1)
sns.boxplot(data=df2, x="HC_segments", y=variable)
plt.tight_layout(pad=2.0)
In contrasts, the dendrogram for Ward linkage appears to provide better clustering, with 4 appearing to be the appropriate number of clusters
HCmodel = AgglomerativeClustering(n_clusters=4, affinity="euclidean", linkage="ward")
HCmodel.fit(subset_scaled_df)
AgglomerativeClustering(affinity='euclidean', n_clusters=4)In a Jupyter environment, please rerun this cell to show the HTML representation or trust the notebook.
AgglomerativeClustering(affinity='euclidean', n_clusters=4)
# creating a copy of the original data
df3=df.copy()
# adding hierarchical cluster labels to the original and scaled dataframes
hc_df["HC_segments"] = HCmodel.labels_
df3["HC_segments"] = HCmodel.labels_
Cluster Profiling
hc_cluster_profile = df3.groupby("HC_segments").mean()
hc_cluster_profile["count_in_each_segment"] = (
df3.groupby("HC_segments")["Security"].count().values
)
hc_cluster_profile.style.highlight_max(color="lightgreen", axis=0)
| Current Price | Price Change | Volatility | ROE | Cash Ratio | Net Cash Flow | Net Income | Earnings Per Share | Estimated Shares Outstanding | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | count_in_each_segment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HC_segments | ||||||||||||
| 0 | 48.006208 | -11.263107 | 2.590247 | 196.551724 | 40.275862 | -495901724.137931 | -3597244655.172414 | -8.689655 | 486319827.294483 | 75.110924 | -2.162622 | 29 |
| 1 | 326.198218 | 10.563242 | 1.642560 | 14.400000 | 309.466667 | 288850666.666667 | 864498533.333333 | 7.785333 | 544900261.301333 | 113.095334 | 19.142151 | 15 |
| 2 | 42.848182 | 6.270446 | 1.123547 | 22.727273 | 71.454545 | 558636363.636364 | 14631272727.272728 | 3.410000 | 4242572567.290909 | 15.242169 | -4.924615 | 11 |
| 3 | 72.760400 | 5.213307 | 1.427078 | 25.603509 | 60.392982 | 79951512.280702 | 1538594322.807018 | 3.655351 | 446472132.228456 | 24.722670 | -2.647194 | 285 |
## print the companies in each cluster
for cl in df3["HC_segments"].unique():
print("In cluster {}, the following companies are present:".format(cl))
print(df3[df3["HC_segments"] == cl]["Security"].unique())
print()
In cluster 3, the following companies are present: ['American Airlines Group' 'AbbVie' 'Abbott Laboratories' 'Adobe Systems Inc' 'Analog Devices, Inc.' 'Archer-Daniels-Midland Co' 'Ameren Corp' 'American Electric Power' 'AFLAC Inc' 'American International Group, Inc.' 'Apartment Investment & Mgmt' 'Assurant Inc' 'Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.' 'Akamai Technologies Inc' 'Albemarle Corp' 'Alaska Air Group Inc' 'Allstate Corp' 'Applied Materials Inc' 'AMETEK Inc' 'Affiliated Managers Group Inc' 'Ameriprise Financial' 'American Tower Corp A' 'AutoNation Inc' 'Anthem Inc.' 'Aon plc' 'Amphenol Corp' 'Arconic Inc' 'Activision Blizzard' 'AvalonBay Communities, Inc.' 'Broadcom' 'American Water Works Company Inc' 'American Express Co' 'Boeing Company' 'Baxter International Inc.' 'BB&T Corporation' 'Bard (C.R.) Inc.' 'BIOGEN IDEC Inc.' 'The Bank of New York Mellon Corp.' 'Ball Corp' 'Bristol-Myers Squibb' 'Boston Scientific' 'BorgWarner' 'Boston Properties' 'Caterpillar Inc.' 'Chubb Limited' 'CBRE Group' 'Crown Castle International Corp.' 'Carnival Corp.' 'Celgene Corp.' 'CF Industries Holdings Inc' 'Citizens Financial Group' 'Church & Dwight' 'C. H. Robinson Worldwide' 'CIGNA Corp.' 'Cincinnati Financial' 'Comerica Inc.' 'CME Group Inc.' 'Cummins Inc.' 'CMS Energy' 'Centene Corporation' 'CenterPoint Energy' 'Capital One Financial' 'The Cooper Companies' 'CSX Corp.' 'CenturyLink Inc' 'Cognizant Technology Solutions' 'Citrix Systems' 'CVS Health' 'Chevron Corp.' 'Dominion Resources' 'Delta Air Lines' 'Du Pont (E.I.)' 'Deere & Co.' 'Discover Financial Services' 'Quest Diagnostics' 'Danaher Corp.' 'The Walt Disney Company' 'Discovery Communications-A' 'Discovery Communications-C' 'Delphi Automotive' 'Digital Realty Trust' 'Dun & Bradstreet' 'Dover Corp.' 'Dr Pepper Snapple Group' 'Duke Energy' 'DaVita Inc.' 'eBay Inc.' 'Ecolab Inc.' 'Consolidated Edison' 'Equifax Inc.' "Edison Int'l" 'Eastman Chemical' 'Equity Residential' 'EQT Corporation' 'Eversource Energy' 'Essex Property Trust, Inc.' 'E*Trade' 'Eaton Corporation' 'Entergy Corp.' 'Edwards Lifesciences' 'Exelon Corp.' "Expeditors Int'l" 'Expedia Inc.' 'Extra Space Storage' 'Fastenal Co' 'Fortune Brands Home & Security' 'FirstEnergy Corp' 'Fidelity National Information Services' 'Fiserv Inc' 'FLIR Systems' 'Fluor Corp.' 'Flowserve Corporation' 'FMC Corporation' 'Federal Realty Investment Trust' 'First Solar Inc' 'General Dynamics' 'General Growth Properties Inc.' 'Gilead Sciences' 'Corning Inc.' 'General Motors' 'Genuine Parts' 'Garmin Ltd.' 'Goodyear Tire & Rubber' 'Grainger (W.W.) Inc.' 'Halliburton Co.' 'Hasbro Inc.' 'Huntington Bancshares' 'HCA Holdings' 'Welltower Inc.' 'HCP Inc.' 'Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.' 'Harley-Davidson' "Honeywell Int'l Inc." 'Hewlett Packard Enterprise' 'HP Inc.' 'Hormel Foods Corp.' 'Henry Schein' 'Host Hotels & Resorts' 'The Hershey Company' 'Humana Inc.' 'International Business Machines' 'IDEXX Laboratories' 'Intl Flavors & Fragrances' 'International Paper' 'Interpublic Group' 'Iron Mountain Incorporated' 'Illinois Tool Works' 'Invesco Ltd.' 'J. B. Hunt Transport Services' 'Jacobs Engineering Group' 'Juniper Networks' 'Kimco Realty' 'Kansas City Southern' 'Leggett & Platt' 'Lennar Corp.' 'Laboratory Corp. of America Holding' 'LKQ Corporation' 'L-3 Communications Holdings' 'Lilly (Eli) & Co.' 'Lockheed Martin Corp.' 'Alliant Energy Corp' 'Leucadia National Corp.' 'Southwest Airlines' 'Level 3 Communications' 'LyondellBasell' 'Mastercard Inc.' 'Mid-America Apartments' 'Macerich' "Marriott Int'l." 'Masco Corp.' 'Mattel Inc.' "McDonald's Corp." "Moody's Corp" 'Mondelez International' 'MetLife Inc.' 'Mohawk Industries' 'Mead Johnson' 'McCormick & Co.' 'Martin Marietta Materials' 'Marsh & McLennan' '3M Company' 'Altria Group Inc' 'The Mosaic Company' 'Marathon Petroleum' 'Merck & Co.' 'M&T Bank Corp.' 'Mettler Toledo' 'Mylan N.V.' 'Navient' 'NASDAQ OMX Group' 'NextEra Energy' 'Newmont Mining Corp. (Hldg. Co.)' 'Nielsen Holdings' 'Norfolk Southern Corp.' 'Northern Trust Corp.' 'Nucor Corp.' 'Newell Brands' 'Realty Income Corporation' 'Omnicom Group' "O'Reilly Automotive" "People's United Financial" 'Pitney-Bowes' 'PACCAR Inc.' 'PG&E Corp.' 'Public Serv. Enterprise Inc.' 'PepsiCo Inc.' 'Principal Financial Group' 'Procter & Gamble' 'Progressive Corp.' 'Pulte Homes Inc.' 'Philip Morris International' 'PNC Financial Services' 'Pentair Ltd.' 'Pinnacle West Capital' 'PPG Industries' 'PPL Corp.' 'Prudential Financial' 'Phillips 66' 'Quanta Services Inc.' 'Praxair Inc.' 'PayPal' 'Ryder System' 'Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd' 'Robert Half International' 'Roper Industries' 'Republic Services Inc' 'SCANA Corp' 'Charles Schwab Corporation' 'Sealed Air' 'Sherwin-Williams' 'SL Green Realty' 'Scripps Networks Interactive Inc.' 'Southern Co.' 'Simon Property Group Inc' 'Stericycle Inc' 'Sempra Energy' 'SunTrust Banks' 'State Street Corp.' 'Skyworks Solutions' 'Synchrony Financial' 'Stryker Corp.' 'Molson Coors Brewing Company' 'Tegna, Inc.' 'Torchmark Corp.' 'Thermo Fisher Scientific' 'TripAdvisor' 'The Travelers Companies Inc.' 'Tractor Supply Company' 'Tyson Foods' 'Tesoro Petroleum Co.' 'Total System Services' 'Texas Instruments' 'Under Armour' 'United Continental Holdings' 'UDR Inc' 'Universal Health Services, Inc.' 'United Health Group Inc.' 'Unum Group' 'Union Pacific' 'United Parcel Service' 'United Technologies' 'Varian Medical Systems' 'Valero Energy' 'Vulcan Materials' 'Vornado Realty Trust' 'Verisk Analytics' 'Verisign Inc.' 'Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc' 'Ventas Inc' 'Wec Energy Group Inc' 'Whirlpool Corp.' 'Waste Management Inc.' 'Western Union Co' 'Weyerhaeuser Corp.' 'Wyndham Worldwide' 'Wynn Resorts Ltd' 'Xcel Energy Inc' 'XL Capital' 'Dentsply Sirona' 'Xerox Corp.' 'Xylem Inc.' 'Yum! Brands Inc' 'Zimmer Biomet Holdings' 'Zions Bancorp' 'Zoetis'] In cluster 1, the following companies are present: ['Alliance Data Systems' 'Alexion Pharmaceuticals' 'Amgen Inc' 'Amazon.com Inc' 'Chipotle Mexican Grill' 'Equinix' 'Facebook' 'Frontier Communications' 'Intuitive Surgical Inc.' 'Monster Beverage' 'Netflix Inc.' 'Priceline.com Inc' 'Regeneron' 'Waters Corporation' 'Yahoo Inc.'] In cluster 0, the following companies are present: ['Allegion' 'Apache Corporation' 'Anadarko Petroleum Corp' 'Baker Hughes Inc' 'Chesapeake Energy' 'Charter Communications' 'Colgate-Palmolive' 'Cabot Oil & Gas' 'Concho Resources' 'Devon Energy Corp.' 'EOG Resources' 'Freeport-McMoran Cp & Gld' 'Hess Corporation' 'Kimberly-Clark' 'Kinder Morgan' 'Marathon Oil Corp.' 'Murphy Oil' 'Noble Energy Inc' 'Newfield Exploration Co' 'National Oilwell Varco Inc.' 'ONEOK' 'Occidental Petroleum' 'Range Resources Corp.' 'Spectra Energy Corp.' 'S&P Global, Inc.' 'Southwestern Energy' 'Teradata Corp.' 'Williams Cos.' 'Cimarex Energy'] In cluster 2, the following companies are present: ['Bank of America Corp' 'Citigroup Inc.' 'Ford Motor' 'Intel Corp.' 'JPMorgan Chase & Co.' 'Coca Cola Company' 'Pfizer Inc.' 'AT&T Inc' 'Verizon Communications' 'Wells Fargo' 'Exxon Mobil Corp.']
df3.groupby(["HC_segments", "GICS Sector"])['Security'].count()
HC_segments GICS Sector
0 Consumer Discretionary 1
Consumer Staples 2
Energy 22
Financials 1
Industrials 1
Information Technology 1
Materials 1
1 Consumer Discretionary 3
Consumer Staples 1
Health Care 5
Information Technology 4
Real Estate 1
Telecommunications Services 1
2 Consumer Discretionary 1
Consumer Staples 1
Energy 1
Financials 4
Health Care 1
Information Technology 1
Telecommunications Services 2
3 Consumer Discretionary 35
Consumer Staples 15
Energy 7
Financials 44
Health Care 34
Industrials 52
Information Technology 27
Materials 19
Real Estate 26
Telecommunications Services 2
Utilities 24
Name: Security, dtype: int64
plt.figure(figsize=(20, 20))
plt.suptitle("Boxplot of numerical variables for each cluster")
for i, variable in enumerate(num_col):
plt.subplot(3, 4, i + 1)
sns.boxplot(data=df3, x="HC_segments", y=variable)
plt.tight_layout(pad=2.0)
Cluster 0 (High-Value Stocks):
Cluster 1 (High-Value and Growth Stocks):
Cluster 2 (Moderate Value Stocks):
Cluster 3 (Mixed Portfolio with Moderate Value):
You compare several things, like:
You can also mention any differences or similarities you obtained in the cluster profiles from both the clustering techniques.
Comparing K-means and Hierarchical Clustering:
Execution Time:
Distinct Clusters:
Observations in Similar Clusters:
Appropriate Number of Clusters:
Based on the data analysis and clustering results, here are some actionable insights and recommendations for Trade&Ahead:
Diversified Portfolio Building: Recommend diversified portfolios for their clients. Encourage clients to allocate investments across various clusters, as this will help balance their portfolios and reduce exposure to specific market risks.
Cluster-Specific Strategies: Develop investment strategies tailored to each cluster. Consider the risk tolerance, financial goals, and investment horizon for clients in each cluster.Provide cluster-specific investment recommendations and strategies to align with the characteristics of the stocks in each cluster.
Regular Portfolio Review: Encourage clients to review their portfolios periodically and make adjustments based on changing market dynamics.Suggest that Trade&Ahead's clients regularly assess their investments and consider rebalancing when necessary.
Market Research: Keep Trade&Ahead updated with market research and data analysis. Ensure they are equipped with the latest insights and trends. Continuously provide insights on market trends, emerging sectors, and potential investment opportunities to keep clients informed.